Evan Ellis - 2025: Possibilities for Latin America and the Caribbean in the Year to Come
Dear Colleague:
As 2025 begins, I am proud to share with you a frank, in-depth look at what may occur in Latin America and the Caribbean in the coming year.
It notes that the region will face an unprecedented number of political change events, including the upcoming battle over, and international response to the Presidential inauguration in Venezuela, followed by 10 elections throughout the year; Ecuador (first round in February, second round in April), Suriname (May), Bolivia (August), Chile (November), Honduras (November), and St. Vincents and the Grenadines (November), plus elections on not-yet defined dates, yet by the end of the year, in Trinidad and Tobago, Jamaica, Guyana, and Belize.
The work examines how these change events will impact, and be impacted by seven interdependent, transformational forces: (1) transnational organized crime, (2) migration (3) climate effects, (4) the digital technology revolution, (5) new patterns of US engagement with the region, (6) expanded engagement by the PRC, and (7) a reconfiguration of the Latin American left.
The work also looks at the likelihood of shocks impacting the economic and political trajectory of the region from global events more broadly, including the changing landscape in the Middle East, the possible evolution of Russia’s war against Ukraine, and China’s confrontation with the US and the West in the Indopacific.
The conclusions in this work are GRIM, seeing a likely deterioration of the quality of institutions, economic performance and democracy, increasing crime and insecurity, and a re-orientation of the region’s orientation toward the US, China and other troubling extra-hemispheric actors. This is not a glossy think-tank report that ends with comforting policy proscriptions, but a frank look at what very plausibly could happen, an—in the name of academic freedom—things that need to be said.
This article is the first of two major works I will be sharing on the forces shaping the region in the coming year and the response of actors in and beyond the region.
The present article is available for download HERE in ENGLISH:
It is available for download HERE in SPANISH:
The article is available in ENGLISH from Indrastra:
https://www.indrastra.com/2024/12/2025-possibilities-for-year-to-come.html
It is also available in SPANISH from Infobae:
https://www.infobae.com/america/opinion/2024/12/29/trump-la-amenaza-china-y-los-grandes-desafios-de-america-latina-como-sera-el-panorama-global-en-2025/
Podcasts, Media Appearances, and Radio Shows:
As always, I would also like to share with you my latest media appearances.
These include my December 30 extended Spanish-language interview on Guarimba Digital on the strategic importance of Venezuela, “El Rol Estrategico de Venezuela para el Mundo”:
They also include my December 18, 2024 presentation on engagement by Iran and Hezbollah in Latin America, for the Homeland Defense Information Analysis Center (HDIAC): Security Implications for the United States of Iran and Hezbollah Activities in Latin America.
They also include my Spanish-language, two-part interview with EVTV on the future of the Maduro Administration in Venezuela under the incoming Trump administration, “El La Mira con La Kuatar”:
These also include my weekly segments on the John Batchelor Show, in his special ongoing series on Latin America, The New World Report.
The latest episodes (December 17, 2024) are:
Lula and Brazil: https://audioboom.com/posts/8625639-newworldreport-lula-s-brain-latin-american-research-professor-evan-ellis-u-s-army-war-colleg
Argentina Good News: https://audioboom.com/posts/8625641-newworldreport-good-news-argentina-latin-american-research-professor-evan-ellis-u-s-army-war
Venezuela Charm Offensive: https://audioboom.com/posts/8625640-newworldreport-venezuela-charm-offensive-latin-american-research-professor-evan-ellis-u-s-a
Paraguay's Promise: https://audioboom.com/posts/8625643-newworldreport-latin-american-research-professor-evan-ellis-u-s-army-war-college-strategic-st
Website for all Publications:
As always, at my professional website you can access these, and past publications, webinars and podcasts:
https://revanellis.com/
Book on China-Latin America:
My latest book, China Engages Latin America: Distorting Development and Democracy, is available through my publisher Palgrave-Macmillan, at:
https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-96049-0
Please feel free to share this post with a friend or colleague. If you would like to be included in my (always free) distribution list, I welcome the opportunity to include you:
Thank you, as always, for your interest in my work.
Respectfully,
R. Evan Ellis, PhD
Latin America Research Professor
U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute
@REvanEllis
Website: https://revanellis.com