Evan Ellis - Bolivia’s Descent into Deep Chaos and the Implications for the Region
Dear Colleague,
With this email, I am pleased to share with you my article on the deepening political crisis in Bolivia, just published by Global Americans. The article looks at the struggle for the future of the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) party in Bolivia between current President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales. That struggle, in Bolivia’s current political context, implies the likely leadership of the country through the 2025 elections and beyond.
The article also looks at the context of the troubling criminalization of the Bolivian economy and politics, particularly driven by the coca and illegal mining sectors, as well as deepening economic challenges facing the country. It examines Bolivia’s strategic position in the Center of South America and its relationships with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Russia, and Iran—particularly in the context of the escalating conflict in the Middle East, to postulate the stakes of the outcome of Bolivia’s leadership struggle for the region and for the United States.
As discussed in a soon to come future article, it is important to note that Bolivia’s dynamics also play out in the context of the landslide victory of Javier Milei in Argentina, which itself has major foreign policy implications for Bolivia’s neighbor Argentina, which may go beyond Milei’s ability to implement his domestic economic agenda and reforms to the structure of Argentina’s government. With Milei’s ability to impact foreign policy through Executive action and discourse, Milei’s government will likely dramatically change Argentina’s strategic posture in South America, including its political (more than economic) relationship with the PRC, Russia and Iran, as well as Israel (which reportedly will be the focus of Milei’s first major visit after passing through the United States). Milei’s new posture for Argentina will also likely affect Mercosur, the politics of CELAC, BRICS, and the Interamerican system, hopefully for the positive. The U.S. management of the new opportunities President-elect Milei presents, as a supportive partner, while navigating the risks, will also arguably powerfully impact the region.
Finally, for those who celebrate the U.S. holiday of Thanksgiving, my best wishes for a wonderful holiday, with family and other loved ones, in the spirit of tolerance and compassion, part of our “best side” and a key source of our strength as a nation.
My work on Bolivia is available here for download:
The work is also available for download at the website of Global Americans, which published it:
https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/bolivias-descent-into-deep-chaos-and-the-implications-for-the-region/
Podcast and Radio Shows:
As always, I would also like to share with you the links to my latest audiovisual programs and podcasts.
These include my latest segments on the John Batchelor Show, in his special ongoing series on Latin America, The New World Report. You may find these weekly podcasts, which we have been doing regularly for well over a year now, as a useful analysis of key events in the region. The full list is available on my website:
https://www.revanellis.com
The latest episodes are:
Argentina Elections - Domestic Policy Outlook. November 21: https://audioboom.com/posts/8404619-newworldreport-president-elect-javier-milei-and-the-unknowns-latin-american-research-professo
Argentina Elections - Foreign Policy Outlook. November 21: https://audioboom.com/posts/8404620-newworldreport-javier-milei-s-foreign-policy-latin-american-research-professor-evan-ellis
Mexico, China, Fentanyl and the APEC Leaders Summit .November 21: https://audioboom.com/posts/8404621-newworldreport-fentanyl-diplomacy-at-apec-latin-american-research-professor-evan-ellis-u-s-a
Elections and Crises in Guatemala and Panama. November 21: https://audioboom.com/posts/8404622-newworldreport-instability-in-guatemala-and-panama-latin-american-research-professor-evan-el
Website for all Publications:
As always, at my professional website you can access the present, and all of my past publications, as well as select webinars and podcasts:
https://revanellis.com/
I am pleased to announce that the website now has its own search engine and improved functionality for browsing and accessing my older articles, thanks to a gift by my brilliant son and Information Technology professional, Brandon Ellis.
Book on China-Latin America:
My latest book, China Engages Latin America: Distorting Development and Democracy, is available through my publisher Palgrave-Macmillan, at:
https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-96049-0
Please feel free to share this post with a friend or colleague. If you would like to be included in my (always free) distribution list, I welcome the opportunity to include you:
Thank you, as always, for your interest in my work.
Respectfully,
R. Evan Ellis, PhD
Latin America Research Professor
U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute
@REvanEllis
Website: https://revanellis.com