Evan Ellis - Ecuador's Security Challenges and the Government's Response
Dear Colleague:
On Sunday February 9th, as attention in the US was absorbed by the Superbowl (Congradulations, Eagles!), the South American nation of Ecuador held Round 1 of its Presidential Election. The vote was a virtual tie between the two leading candidates, current Ecuadoran President Daniel Noboa Azin (44.47%), and Luisa Gonzalez (44.12%), seen by many as a stand-in for her mentor, anti-US populist Rafael Correa, with the remainder spilt between 14 other candidates.
Ecuador’s election now goes to a run-off on April 13th, in which there is now a possible path for victory for Luisa Gonzalez, and with it, the possible return of Correa from self-imposed legal exile, and back to political influence in Ecuador. The implied possible return of populist leftist governance in Ecuador (despite Gonzalez’ publicly moderate stance on key issues), would remove one of a dwindling number of right-oriented US friendly governments in the region. It would potentially add Ecuador’s voice to the heterogeneous cluster of left-oriented regimes in the region quietly or actively pursuing counterweights to the America’s First strategy of the Trump Administration in the U.S. On the far left, these include the consolidation of power by anti-U.S. regimes which actively host extra hemispheric actors and criminal organizations that threaten US interests: Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba. Beyond such “threat hosts” the coalition arguably includes increasingly radical leftist governments in Honduras and Colombia (for who’s President cocaine is no worse than whiskey), plus major regional powers including Mexico and Brazil, and in more moderate democratic terms, the new left Yamandu Orsi government in Uruguay and the Gabriel Boric government in Chile. Together such shifting political dynamics have significant strategic implications for the United States and the region.
In the context of such high stakes, a key factor in the outcome of Round 2 of Ecuador’s presidential contest will be President Noboa's management of the nation's grave security challenges, and the effectiveness, scale and agility with which the U.S., as a partner, can support Ecuador’s response to its security challenges.
Given the strategic importance of Ecuador’s election, and its management of security challenges shaping the outcome, I'm proud to share my latest work, “Ecuador’s Security Challenges and the Government’s Response.” It is based on my research and a substantial number of in-depth conversations with Ecuadoran government personnel, academics and other security experts during my visit to Guayaquil and Quito in December 2024. It was just published by Florida International University.
It is available HERE for download in ENGLISH:
It is also available HERE, in ENGLISH, from Florida International University, which published it:
Podcasts, Media Appearances, and Radio Shows:
As always, I would also like to share with you my latest media appearances.
These include my weekly segments on the John Batchelor Show, in his special ongoing series on Latin America, The New World Report.
The latest episodes (February 5, 2025) are:
Mexico: https://audioboom.com/posts/8649514-newworldreport-mexico-sees-negotiation-latin-american-research-professor-evan-ellis-u-s-army-w
Secretary Rubio trip to Central America: https://audioboom.com/posts/8649516-newworldreport-why-central-america-first-latin-american-research-professor-evan-ellis-u-s-ar
Brazil and Venezuela: https://audioboom.com/posts/8649518-newworldreport-brazil-to-moscow-venezuela-returns-hostages-latin-american-research-professo
El Salvador: https://audioboom.com/posts/8649521-newworldreport-el-salvador-and-potus-latin-american-research-professor-evan-ellis-u-s-army-w
Website for all Publications:
As always, at my professional website you can access these, and past publications, webinars and podcasts:
https://revanellis.com/
Book on China-Latin America:
My latest book, China Engages Latin America: Distorting Development and Democracy, is available through my publisher Palgrave-Macmillan, at:
https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-96049-0
Please feel free to share this post with a friend or colleague. If you would like to be included in my (always free) distribution list, I welcome the opportunity to include you:
Thank you, as always, for your interest in my work.
Respectfully,
R. Evan Ellis, PhD
Latin America Research Professor
U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute
@REvanEllis
Website: https://revanellis.com