Evan Ellis - Implication of Lula's Victory for Brazil, the U.S. and the Region
Dear Colleague,
I am proud to share with you my analysis of the victory of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Round 2 of Brazil’s Presidential elections through two articles: (1) The Spanish language article, published by Argentina’s InfoBAE, looks at the implications of Lula’s victory for Brazil’s domestic and foreign policy. (2) The English-language article, published by Global Americans, focuses principally on the foreign policy and regional politics implications, with recommendations for the US.
In both works, I recognize the skill of the Biden team’s diplomatic approach in building political capital with the incoming Lula administration. I concur with their exploration of areas for the US and Brazil to continue working together where our interests coincide.
Nonetheless, in my work, I argue that US policymakers pay attention to the risks that the likely Lula foreign policy, without being directed against the US, will indirectly undermine our efforts to fight for democracy and the rule of law…not simply through platitudes, but with respect to meaningful actions against authoritarian regimes that have hijacked their countries’ democracy, engaged in criminal activity, and flaunted their contractual/legal obligations with companies who trusted to engage in commerce with, and invest in them. I am, of course, speaking of Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba, among others. I caution that in pursuing its new agenda, the Lula government could foment a multilateralism that undercuts the inherent US role as part of the hemisphere, and possibly undermine US efforts to mobilize coalitions against international threats such as Russia and Iran in the hemisphere and globally…as well as US attempts to fight for transparency and good governance to innoculate its partners in the region against some of the more risky dimensions of the deepening presence of the PRC in the region.
The works argue that the US, while working with the Lula regime where our interests coincide, should continue to use its leverage to discourage the new Lula administration from pursuing a foreign policy that negatively impacts US strategic equities with respect to China, Russia and Iran, discourage it from pursuing a new new multilateralism that indirectly excludes the US voice as part of the hemisphere, and discourage it from policies of “tolerance” that give new life to regimes such as Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba, that flaunt both their people’s rights of democratic expression, human rights, and legal and contractual obligations.
The Global Americans article is available here for download in English:
The Spanish InfoBAE article is available at:
The English language article is also available from Global Americans, at:
https://theglobalamericans.org/2022/11/lulas-victory-implications-for-brazils-foreign-policy-and-the-us-response/
The extended version, in Spanish through InfoBAE, at:
https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2022/11/03/las-implicaciones-de-la-victoria-de-lula-para-brasil-estados-unidos-y-la-region/
My Latest Podcasts
Per my previous emails, the latest episodes of my weekly hour-long radio segment discussing Latin America with renowned talkshow host John Batchelor, “The New World Report.” are available at:
Ecuador: https://audioboom.com/posts/8187715-newworldreport-ecuador-trade-and-risk-latin-american-research-professor-evan-ellis-u-s-army
Bolivia: https://audioboom.com/posts/8187713-newworldreport-bolivia-standoff-between-la-paz-and-santa-rosa-latin-american-research-prof
Argentina: https://audioboom.com/posts/8187712-newworldreport-argentina-fernandes-embraces-lula-da-silva-latin-american-research-professor
https://audioboom.com/posts/8187711-newworldreport-lula-da-silva-bests-jair-bolsonaro-latin-american-research-professor-evan-ellis
Website for all Publications:
As always, at my professional website you can access the present, and all of my past publications, as well as select webinars and podcasts:
https://revanellis.com/
Book on China-Latin America:
My latest book, China Engages Latin America: Distorting Development and Democracy, is available through my publisher Palgrave-Macmillan, at:
https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-96049-0
Please feel free to share this post with a friend or colleague. If you would like to be included in my (always free) distribution list, I welcome the opportunity to include you:
Thank you, as always, for your interest in my work.
Respectfully,
R. Evan Ellis, PhD
Latin America Research Professor
U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute
@REvanEllis
Website: https://revanellis.com
Brilliant analysis as ever. Will support!