Evan Ellis - Implications of the Israel-Hamas War for the Global Strategic Environment
Dear Colleague,
Three weeks ago, in the early phases of Israel’s response to the horrific Hamas terrorist attacks that killed 1,400 in the country, I wrote an article about how its response, and U.S. support would likely play out, including reactions in the Middle East and the broader international community, as well as the short and long-term strategic implications of the campaign for the Middle East, Russia, the Ukraine, and China.
With the normal delays of publishing in a professional military journal, I am pleased to share that work with you now. I am impacted by how much events were consistent with my concerns.
Israel’s current advance on the ground into the center of Gaza City will contribute to all of the dynamics I mention in the work:
The strengthening of public opinion against Israel, as it inevitably incurs civilian casualties, in urban combat against an adversary which structured the battlefield to maximize precisely that dilemma for Israel.
The polarization of the Middle East and the associated marginalization of moderates, cooperation with Israel, and U.S. leverage in the region…all to the benefit of Iran
Risk of a broadened conflict, tying down U.S. attention and resources, to the benefit of Russia, as the approach of winter complicates Ukraine’s campaign to retake its territory.
Increasing strategic advantage for the PRC, as its geopolitical rival is drawn deeper into two major simultaneous conflicts consuming U.S. attention, resources and (in the Middle East) international goodwill, even while China profits handsomely from commerce with Russia and Iran, and the moral neutrality of its “no judgement among friends” posture win it influence.
The world, and political constituencies in the United States, will increasingly question Israel’s choices as it navigates impossible dilemmas between incurring civilian casualties and effectively pursuing military objectives while minimizing risk to its own force. The purpose of this article is neither to “judge,” nor to advocate “not judging” those choices. Rather, as this tragedy plays out, for those with an eye to the future and the global strategic environment, this work observes with profound concern that the secondary effects of what is unfolding, isolating both Israel and the U.S. and strengthening adversaries whose agendas have profoundly troubling implications for the cause of security, democracy, and the protection of individual rights globally.
The work is available here for download in the original Spanish, from the important new Colombian military journal Geodese, which published it:
It is also available in English, from the Indian publishing house Indrastra:
It is also available for download, in Spanish, at the Geodese website:
https://www.geodese.com/2023/11/02/implicaciones-de-la-guerra-entre-israel-y-hamas-para-el-entorno-estrategico-mundial/
And for download in English, at Indrastra:
https://www.indrastra.com/2023/11/implications-of-israel-hamas-war-for.html
Podcast and Radio Shows:
As always, I would also like to share with you the links to my latest audiovisual programs and podcasts.
These include participation in an excellent November 3, 2023 program by the Consortium of Indo-Pacific Researchers (CIPR) on the evolution of the Current Geopolitical Environment:
These programs also include my latest segments on the John Batchelor Show, in his special ongoing series on Latin America, The New World Report. You may find these weekly podcasts, which we have been doing regularly for well over a year now, as a useful analysis of key events in the region. The full list is available on my website:
https://www.revanellis.com
The latest episodes are:
Guyana. November 1: https://audioboom.com/posts/8394054-newworldreport-guyana-strikes-oil-latin-american-research-professor-evan-ellis-u-s-army-war
Colombia and Panama. November 1: https://audioboom.com/posts/8394056-newworldreport-petro-crashes-panama-crashing-latin-american-research-professor-evan-ellis-u
Argentina. November 1: https://audioboom.com/posts/8394058-newworldreport-argentina-veering-to-the-peronista-status-quo-latin-american-research-professo
Venezuela. November 1: https://audioboom.com/posts/8394055-newworldreport-venezuela-dares-the-biden-administration-to-interfere-latin-american-research
Website for all Publications:
As always, at my professional website you can access the present, and all of my past publications, as well as select webinars and podcasts:
https://revanellis.com/
I am pleased to announce that the website now has its own search engine and improved functionality for browsing and accessing my older articles, thanks to a gift by my brilliant son and Information Technology professional, Brandon Ellis.
Book on China-Latin America:
My latest book, China Engages Latin America: Distorting Development and Democracy, is available through my publisher Palgrave-Macmillan, at:
https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-96049-0
Please feel free to share this post with a friend or colleague. If you would like to be included in my (always free) distribution list, I welcome the opportunity to include you:
Thank you, as always, for your interest in my work.
Respectfully,
R. Evan Ellis, PhD
Latin America Research Professor
U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute
@REvanEllis
Website: https://revanellis.com