Evan Ellis - New Paths Forward in Bolivia, Colombia, and Peru
Dear Colleagues:
In recent days, multiple events have occurred which will significantly shape the dynamics and direction of South America.
On Sunday, October 19, Rodrigo Paz was elected by a large margin over Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga as President of Bolivia, once again defying pollsters who had predicted Quiroga’s victory, and whose surveys often fail to reach or capture the sentiments of Bolivia’s indigenous and economically marginalized populations. Paz, whose education and early professional career was in the United States (another illustration of the “soft power” of U.S. educational and professional visas) has expressed an intention to seek better relations with Washington, and more responsible, market-oriented economic policies. His election is a significant strategic opportunity for the United States, but the depth of Bolivia’s crisis and the divisions within its population will worsen Bolivia’s economic problems if he doesn’t move fast enough. On the other hand, Bolivia’s polarization will create political vulnerabilities if Paz moves too quickly, particularly with respect to working more closely with the United States or seeking help from the International Monetary Fund.
Also on Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the intention to cut aid to Colombia and increase its tariffs, in response to insufficient cooperation by its President Gustavo Petro in combatting narcotrafficking. Gustavo Petro’s “total peace” policies have arguably been disastrous for Colombia’s fight against terrorism, narcotrafficking, illegal mining, and other criminality, and his advocacy for actions against the Trump Administration, including on U.S. soil, have been ill-advised. Still, by contrast to neighboring Venezuela, whose authoritarian leadership is at the top of the criminal franchises that dominate the country, the foibles of Petro arguably reflect poor policy, incompetence, and a lesser, more disorganized malevolence than that in Venezuela. The U.S. actions will likely accelerate the deterioration of Colombia’s already severely strained security and other institutions, badly damage the relationship with the U.S., accelerate the decline of Colombia’s economy and the corruption of all levels of government and society. It will likely also accelerate Petro’s radicalization as an anti-U.S. actor and his turn to the People’s Republic of China (PRC), already substantially underway, albeit limited by his own poor governance.
In Peru, on October 10, that nation’s Congress ousted President Dina Boluarte, replacing her with the former head of that body, Jose Jeri Ore. Jeri’s primary task will be to provide continuity and stable governance through the upcoming April 2026 elections, while addressing criminality and associated insecurity, which has expanded greatly in recent years. Serious, albeit unproven accusations against Jeri involving both corruption and sexual assault, and his less-than-aggressive past leadership of the Peruvian Congress raise questions about what is to come. Nonetheless, his early cabinet picks, including Prime Minister Ernesto Alvarez Miranda, respected head of the San Martin de Porres law school, and experienced diplomat Hugo de Zelaya Martinez, as Foreign Minister, are promising.
In this email, I am proud to share with you, my just-published article on Peru’s security challenges, in both English and Spanish. It was written just before the country’s change in government…yet arguably provides a good overview of the key challenges the new government faces in precisely the area which contributed to the fall of the Boluarte government, and what the government and security forces, in conjunction with partners such as the United States, are doing to address them.
The article is available HERE for download in ENGLISH:
The article is available HERE for download in SPANISH:
The ENGLISH version is also available through Expediente Abierto, which published it:
https://www.expedienteabierto.org/perus-security-challenges/
The SPANISH version is available, also through Expediente Abierto, which published it:
https://www.expedienteabierto.org/desafios-seguridad-peru/
Media Appearances, and Radio Shows:
I would like to share with you my latest podcasts, media appearance and radio shows.
These include my October 16, 2025 interview on U.S. military activities in the Caribbean on the EWTN Global Catholic Television Network program EWTN News Nightly: Trump Authorizes Covert CIA Action in Venezuela
They also include my interview the same day on Sky News Television of Australia: Trump Considers Venezuela Ground Strikes
As usual, they further include my weekly segment of the John Batchelor Show “The New World Report””. The latest episodes (October 16, 2025) are:
Venezuela: https://audioboom.com/posts/8792254-preview-headline-venezuela-s-post-maduro-challenge-securing-military-loyalty-in-a-brief-transit
Ecuador: https://audioboom.com/posts/8792702-us-escalates-pressure-on-maduro-following-machado-s-nobel-prize-evan-ellis-discusses-how-follow
Peru: https://audioboom.com/posts/8792705-us-escalates-pressure-on-maduro-following-machado-s-nobel-prize-evan-ellis-discusses-how-follow
Argentina: https://audioboom.com/posts/8792706-us-escalates-pressure-on-maduro-following-machado-s-nobel-prize-evan-ellis-discusses-how-follow
Website for all Publications:
As always, at my professional website you can access these, and past publications, webinars and podcasts:
REvanEllis.com
Latest Book on China-Latin America:
My latest book, China Engages Latin America: Distorting Development and Democracy, is available through my publisher Palgrave-Macmillan, at:
https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-96049-0
Please feel free to share this post with a friend or colleague. If you would like to be included in my (always free) distribution list, I welcome the opportunity to include you:
Thank you, as always, for your interest in my work.
Respectfully,
R. Evan Ellis, PhD
Latin America Research Professor
U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute
@REvanEllis
Website: https://revanellis.com