Evan Ellis - Of Course, US Actions May Facilitate China’s Advance in Latin America
Dear Colleagues:
This week in Beijing, the People’s Republic of China met with leaders from Latin America and the Caribbean in the 4th China-CELAC leaders summit. Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro, Brazil’s President Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva, and Chile’s Gabriel Boric were all present.
The latest Chinese “offer” to the region, in the context of US tariffs and pressures toward individual countries in the region, was substantial. It included offering almost $10 billion in credit to the region, plus weaving webs of personal benefit and relationships, promising to bring 300 party leaders to the region, 3,500 scholarships for studies in the PRC, 10,000 training opportunities, and security cooperation extending to proposals to work in the region in sensitive new areas such as cybersecurity and counternarcotics.
In the new strategic environment, both Brazil and Colombian Presidents showed their willingness to embrace Chinese offers that their predecessors had not, with Brazil signing 20 different cooperation and investment MOUs, and Gustavo Petro signing onto China’s “Belt and Road Initiative,” a symbolically important but legally meaningless statement of interest.
China has also tried to market its J-10 fighter aircraft to Brazil and Colombia, as well as pursuing cooperation in space and other strategically sensitive areas.
Such developments, I believe, all cast new light on concerns I have expressed in my previous work in The Diplomat, about how certain policies of the new U.S. administration, while attempting to “push back” on the PRC, could inadvertently accelerate its advance in the Americas and elsewhere.
Such concerns by myself and others prompted a widely read March 27, 2025 article by Ryan Berg in Foreign Policy magazine, suggesting that such concerns about China’s advance may be overblown. He advanced four arguments: (1) economic and diplomatic “headwinds” that may limit China’s progress; (2) initiatives such as an expanded Development Finance Corporation (3) “red lines” that cause hesitation by both the PRC and its Latin American partners, and (4) the “multi-aligned” character of the region in which it resists dichotomous choices between the U.S. and the PRC.
In the present article, written before the concerning developments of the China-CELAC summit, I set out the case for why such attempts to play down the risks of China’s advance are mistaken. I believe that events of recent days support these arguments, that US policymakes indeed need to take a hard re-look, whether the current US style and policy choices for engaging the region, is indeed facilitating the very advance of China which has been one of their key concerns.
The article is available here for download in ENGLISH.
It is available here, for download in SPANISH.
It is available in ENGLISH from Opidata, which published it, here:
https://legadoalasamericas.org/por-supuesto-las-acciones-de-ee-uu-pueden-facilitar-el-avance-de-china-en-america-latina/2/
It is available in SPANISH from Opidata, which published it, here:
https://legadoalasamericas.org/por-supuesto-las-acciones-de-ee-uu-pueden-facilitar-el-avance-de-china-en-america-latina/
Podcasts, Media Appearances, and Radio Shows:
I would like to share with you my latest podcasts, media appearance and radio shows. These include my latest weekly segments on the John Batchelor Show, in his special ongoing series on Latin America, The New World Report.
The latest episodes (May 15, 2025) are:
Colombia. https://audioboom.com/posts/8721117-newworldreport-profoundly-troubled-petro-latin-american-research-professor-evan-ellis-u-s-ar
CELAC. https://audioboom.com/posts/8721122-newworldreport-celac-in-beijing-latin-american-research-professor-evan-ellis-u-s-army-war-co
Region. https://audioboom.com/posts/8721118-newworldreport-latin-american-research-professor-evan-ellis-u-s-army-war-college-strategic
Ecuador. https://audioboom.com/posts/8721123-newworldreport-naboa-gets-an-ally-in-the-legislature-latin-american-research-professor-evan-el
Website for all Publications:
As always, at my professional website you can access these, and past publications, webinars and podcasts:
REvanEllis.com
Latest Book on China-Latin America:
My latest book, China Engages Latin America: Distorting Development and Democracy, is available through my publisher Palgrave-Macmillan, at:
https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-96049-0
Please feel free to share this post with a friend or colleague. If you would like to be included in my (always free) distribution list, I welcome the opportunity to include you:
Thank you, as always, for your interest in my work.
Respectfully,
R. Evan Ellis, PhD
Latin America Research Professor
U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute
@REvanEllis
Website: https://revanellis.com
An unfortunate truth, for sure.
Trump may have to choose between Latin America, or Taiwan. Taiwan has Japan to help them.
But Latin America may be something that we can't control any longer.
Thanks for your insights.