Evan Ellis - The Strategic Role of Latin America in a Global Conflict Over Taiwan
Dear Colleague,
With this email, I’m proud to share my new work, thinking about how the PRC might leverage its presence in Latin America against the US in the context of a war arising from a PRC invasion of Taiwan.
I recognize that many in Latin America prefer to separate themselves from the unpleasantness of “Great Power Competition,” and simply seek to take advantage of the resources available from exporting their commodities and receiving loans and investments from the PRC.
The troubling reality is that, with Xi Jinping directing the PLA to prepare for war, and with PRC military forces acting with increasing aggression toward Taiwan (including the past week’s large-scale Taiwan-focused military exercises and sending a record number of fighters and bombers into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone), the world must consider how it would be impacted by a global conflict that could flow out of PRC aggression against Taiwan. To draw a comparison, Latin America did not seek Russia’s unprovoked invasion of the Ukraine either, yet its people find themselves prejudiced by the inflation and havoc on global supply chains Vladimir Putin’s invasion has wrought.
The present work considers, from a military perspective, that in a war arising from PRC aggression against Taiwan, the PRC would almost surely respond to the international coalition opposing it, in every part of the world where it could affect that coalition, using its diplomatic, commercial and military tools to do so.
In the case of Latin America, the PRC would likely use its considerable economic leverage and “people-to-people” power to convince states of region not to join the coalition, and in the name of “neutrality,” convince tem not to “help” the US in any way by diplomatically or economically supporting US efforts, allowing the US to use its ports, waters or airspace.
With an eye to putting US military deployment and sustainment flows at risk, the PRC would logically consider where, in the region, it could deploy intelligence operatives and other teams, and possibly use the facilities in the region of those countries willing to host them. Indeed, the recent docking of a PLA Navy intelligence ship in the Sri Lankan port of Hambantota reminds us that such “collaboration” does not necessarily require formal military basing or alliance agreements. Only that if Latin American governments willingly, or through PRC pressure “allowed” such access, the commercial and military institutional and personal relationships that the PRC has in the region today would greatly increase the rapidity and effectiveness with which its forces could operate in Latin America and the Caribbean, and other parts of the world in time of war.
The article, just published by Seguridad y Poder Terrestre, the journal of the Center for Strategic Studies of the Peruvian Army (CEEEP), is available here for download:
In English:
In Spanish:
It is also available directly from CEEP
In English:
https://revistas.ceeep.mil.pe/index.php/seguridad-y-poder-terrestre/article/view/21/35
In Spanish:
https://revistas.ceeep.mil.pe/index.php/seguridad-y-poder-terrestre/article/view/21/34
Podcast and Radio Shows:
I would also like to share with you the links to my latest programs on the John Batchelor Show, in his special ongoing series on Latin America, The New World Report:
Protests in Brazil: https://audioboom.com/posts/8228098-newworldreport-brazil-roiled-by-brasilia-rioters-latin-american-research-professor-evan-elli
Chile and Colombia React to Events in Brazil: https://audioboom.com/posts/8228101-newworldreport-chile-and-colombia-and-an-emergency-oas-meeting-latin-american-research-profe
Violence in Peru and Bolivia: https://audioboom.com/posts/8228102-newworldreport-violence-in-peru-and-bolivia-latin-american-research-professor-evan-ellis
The Elimination of Venezuela’s Democratic Opposition: https://audioboom.com/posts/8228104-newworldreport-venezuela-maduro-orders-the-arrest-of-the-opposition-in-exile-in-spain-latin
Website for all Publications:
As always, at my professional website you can access the present, and all of my past publications, as well as select webinars and podcasts:
https://revanellis.com/
Book on China-Latin America:
My latest book, China Engages Latin America: Distorting Development and Democracy, is available through my publisher Palgrave-Macmillan, at:
https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-96049-0
Please feel free to share this post with a friend or colleague. If you would like to be included in my (always free) distribution list, I welcome the opportunity to include you:
Thank you, as always, for your interest in my work.
Respectfully,
R. Evan Ellis, PhD
Latin America Research Professor
U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute
@REvanEllis
Website: https://revanellis.com