Evan Ellis - Toward a More Effective DoD Contribution to Strategic Competition in the Western Hemisphere
Dear Colleague:
The in-depth monograph that I am sharing with this email was written prior to the dramatic domestic and foreign policy changes introduced by the new U.S. Administration.
This monograph focuses on the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean, and its impact on US strategic equities in the region, from a US Department of Defense (DoD) perspective, and recommendations for the DoD role in a whole-of-government response.
This work warns of multiple adverse impacts on U.S. and regional interests:
The increasing presence of Chinese companies, products, and people-to-people networks in Latin America—and particularly their presence in digital architectures—gives the People’s Republic of China influence and potential access to sensitive information, putting sovereign decision making and intellectual property at risk;
2. PRC engagement with illiberal regimes facilitates these regimes’ consolidation and continuation of power, indirectly contributing to the risk they pose as hosts of criminal organizations, terrorist organizations, and anti-US adversaries, such as Russia and Iran; and
3. PRC security engagement in the region and the physical presence of PRC-based companies—particularly in ports and space—give the People’s Republic of China options against the United States during a potential conflict.
This work argues, to contribute more effectively to the American whole-of-government response to the PRC, the Department of Defense must design its response to these challenges around strategic concepts focused on the effects the department can reasonably achieve through the tools at its disposal, better resourcing and repairing those tools where necessary to achieve the intended effects.
Promising areas include:
Using security assistance to help democratic partners succeed;
Leveraging the benefit partners perceive in DoD security assistance to strengthen incentives for those partners to continue working with the United States and limit their engagement with the People’s Republic of China;
Using DoD presence in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries—and military relationships of trust— to support situational awareness about PRC activities and how best to respond; and
Preparing, with partners in the region or alone where appropriate, to respond to likely PRC activities in the region in times of war.
This monograph recommends the Department of Defense:
Encourage more thinking within relevant combatant commands, organizations (which are focused on the future war-fighting environment), and academic institutions regarding effects-oriented strategic concepts for countering China.
More adequately resource instruments key to the effects these counter-China strategic concepts contemplate, with an emphasis on professional military education (PME) and training and other security assistance.
Increase resources and instruments for coordinating with other US government agencies in the conceptualization and execution of counter-China efforts.
Accelerate and institutionalize fast-track responses to deliver needed resources to partners in critical security states and political transitions.
Streamline planning and programming for partner defense needs.
Eliminate, where possible, program taxes and oversight organizations that increase costs and decrease the responsiveness of security-assistance activities.
Change the incentives within the foreign area officer (FAO) community and regional security cooperation office teams to decrease risk aversion in initiative taking.
Better message the complex value proposition of why working with the United States and minimizing exposure to PRC security and other critical sectors is in the partner’s national interest.
It is my hope that as the current Administration, the Defense Department, and others including the U.S. Congress and independent oversight organizations with roles to play in protecting and pursuing U.S. national security, that this analysis, and these recommendations may serve those efforts.
The work is available here, for download, in ENGLISH:
It is also available in ENGLISH for download from The U.S Army War College, which published it:
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/975/
Podcasts, Media Appearances, and Radio Shows:
As always, I would also like to share with you my latest media appearances. These include an in-depth, hour-long (5 segment) interview (in Spanish) with Orlando Viera Blanco, in his broadly followed program "Abogado del Diablo" (the Devil’s Advocate), broadcast on February 22, 2025, examining the dramatic shift in U.S. Policy toward Venezuela, Latin America, and the world more broadly, and its strategic implications:
Segment 1:
Segment 2:
Segment 3:
Segment 4:
Segment 5:
These also include my weekly segments on the John Batchelor Show, in his special ongoing series on Latin America, The New World Report.
The latest episodes (February 19, 2025) are:
Mexico: https://audioboom.com/posts/8656413-newworldreport-drones-over-mexico-latin-american-research-professor-evan-ellis-u-s-army-war
Panama: https://audioboom.com/posts/8656415-newworldreport-panama-deports-latin-american-research-professor-evan-ellis-u-s-army-war-col
Argentina: https://audioboom.com/posts/8656418-newworldreport-milei-stumbles-latin-american-research-professor-evan-ellis-u-s-army-war-coll
Website for all Publications:
As always, at my professional website you can access these, and past publications, webinars and podcasts:
https://revanellis.com/
Latest Book on China-Latin America:
My latest book, China Engages Latin America: Distorting Development and Democracy, is available through my publisher Palgrave-Macmillan, at:
https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-96049-0
Please feel free to share this post with a friend or colleague. If you would like to be included in my (always free) distribution list, I welcome the opportunity to include you:
Thank you, as always, for your interest in my work.
Respectfully,
R. Evan Ellis, PhD
Latin America Research Professor
U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute
@REvanEllis
Website: https://revanellis.com