Evan Ellis - Venezuela: Venezuela: Understanding Political, External, and Criminal Actors in an Authoritarian State
Dear Colleague:
This week’s veiled threat by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Rybakov to deploy military forces to Venezuela and Cuba is likely an uncredible attempt to gain strategic leverage in the ongoing Ukraine crisis, not unlike Russian gestures with military forces with allied leftist populist regimes in Latin America and the Caribbean during the 2008 Georgia civil war, the 2013-2014 escalation of tensions over the Ukraine, Russia’s 2018 “talk” of using Venezuela’s tiny La Orchilla Island as a military airbase, etc, etc. Nonetheless, it does call attention to the continuing strategic risk posed to the U.S. and the region by the situation in Venezuela, and the various criminal actors, armed groups, and extra-hemispheric actors pursuing their objectives in the country.
With this email, I am proud to share my newest article, just published by Small Wars Journal, on the dynamics among Chavista-affiliated elites, armed groups, and extra-hemispheric actors in Venezuela, and the dangerous instability of the situation in the country, even if a “restoration of democracy” is among the least likely outcomes.
The enclosed work is based on numerous in-depth interviews with current and former officials and security experts in Venezuela and Colombia, conducted during December 2021-January 2022. It is available here for download:
It is also available at Small Wars Journal, which published it:
https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/venezuela-understanding-political-external-and-criminal-actors-authoritarian-state
As always, if you believe this work of value, please feel free to share it with a colleague, and/or join my distribution list to receive these (always free) publications directly.
I look forward to continuing in touch…
Respectfully,
Evan Ellis
Latin America Research Professor, U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute
#REvanEllis
Another great piece of research. Thanks for sharing! Dr. Huff