Evan Ellis - Would Venezuela Really Invade Essequibo?
Dear Colleague,
With this email, I am pleased to share with you my article on the question of Venezuela’s December 3, 2023 referendum among its own citizens, regarding its claim to the Essequibo region of neighboring Guyana. The work also addresses the question of whether the Venezuelan military might invade Essequibo in furtherance of its claim. It reviews Venezuela’s claim and the associated legal dispute now before the International Court of Justice, and the possible motivations for the Maduro regime’s present course of action. The work concludes that current posturing is most likely oriented toward Maduro’s domestic political maneuvering connected to the 2024 elections, as well as possible efforts to extort the Guyanese government and petroleum companies currently operating in Guyanese waters to be “left in peace” to develop their contractually legitimate operations.
Nonetheless, this work also argues that there is a non-trivial threat of Venezuelan action against its militarily vastly outnumbered neighbor. It finds that Venezuela’s threat alone dictates a U.S. security response that discourages the authoritarian Maduro regime from opportunistically invading its neighbor, as Russia did with Ukraine. The U.S. must also act prudently, in consultation with the region, to minimize Maduro’s ability to exploit U.S. actions for propaganda against U.S. “imperialism.”
The article is available here for download:
The work is also available at the website of Global Americans, which published it:
https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/would-venezuela-really-invade-essequibo/
Podcast and Radio Shows:
As always, I would also like to share with you the links to my latest segments on the John Batchelor Show, in his special ongoing series on Latin America, The New World Report. You may find these weekly podcasts, which we have been doing regularly for well over a year now, as a useful analysis of key events in the region. The full list is available on my website:
https://www.revanellis.com
The latest episodes are:
Argentina and Milei's Domestic Challenges. November 28: https://audioboom.com/posts/8408164-newworldreport-argentina-and-milei-s-promises-for-dollarization-reregulation-democratization
Argentine Foreign Policy, Paraguay and Uruguay. November 28: https://audioboom.com/posts/8408165-newworldreport-milei-and-uruguay-and-paraguay-latin-american-research-professor-evan-ellis-u
Panama. November 28: https://audioboom.com/posts/8408167-newworldreport-panama-destabilizing-woes-latin-american-research-professor-evan-ellis-u-s
Venezuela. November 28: https://audioboom.com/posts/8408169-newworldreport-venezuela-breaks-promises-to-respect-democracy-what-is-to-be-done-latin-ameri
Website for all Publications:
As always, at my professional website you can access the present, and all of my past publications, as well as select webinars and podcasts:
https://revanellis.com/
I am pleased to announce that the website now has its own search engine and improved functionality for browsing and accessing my older articles, thanks to a gift by my brilliant son and Information Technology professional, Brandon Ellis.
Book on China-Latin America:
My latest book, China Engages Latin America: Distorting Development and Democracy, is available through my publisher Palgrave-Macmillan, at:
https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-96049-0
Please feel free to share this post with a friend or colleague. If you would like to be included in my (always free) distribution list, I welcome the opportunity to include you:
Thank you, as always, for your interest in my work.
Respectfully,
R. Evan Ellis, PhD
Latin America Research Professor
U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute
@REvanEllis
Website: https://revanellis.com