Events in Argentina and Peru: A Testament to Institutions and Democratic Resilience, but a Deepened Strategic Challenge for the US?
Dear Colleague,
Although I just sent you an article two days ago, with this email, I would like to share my new brief work on the recent conviction on corruption charges of sitting Argentine Vice President Christina Fernandez, as well as the ouster of Peru’s President Pedro Castillo after his unconstitutional attempt to dissolve Congress.
The core argument of this work is that the outcome in both cases illustrates the resilience of democratic institutions in both countries in the face of serious challenges. In Peru, I particularly applaud the professionalism and respect for the democratic Constitutional order of the Peruvian military in navigating these turbulent days.
The core argument of this work is counterintuitive and counter to most of the coverage of Argentina and Peru this week…but, I believe, needs to be considered: the long-term impact of these otherwise positive events, ironically, may be to extend the viability and health of the left in both countries, even while the Biden Administration succeeds in maintaining friendly relations, and often, policy alignment, with many of those regimes.
In Peru, what a difference a few days makes! Beyond what I have written even in the article, the very serious ongoing protests and regional response may also present the United States with a strategic opportunity:
If there were once concerns about the policy direction that Peru’s new President Dina Boluarte would take, her savaging by radical elements among her former friends on Peru’s left, as well as some regimes once friendly to her cause…has demonstrated their disrespect for Peru’s constitutional order and rule-of-law in the name of identity politics and their regional agendas. In short, to the extent that Boluarte’s politics are grounded in principle, the United States with its early and strong support, has shown her who her true friends are. With the cynical populist left now turning on her, she needs such true friends that respect Peru’s constitutional order and the rule of law.
The article is available here for download in English:
And with modest updates, in Spanish:
It is also available for download from the original source, Newsmax, which published it in English:
https://www.newsmax.com/evanellis/boularte-castillo-fernandez/2022/12/13/id/1100327/.
And at InfoBAE, which translated and published it, with minor updates in Spanish:
https://www.infobae.com/america/opinion/2022/12/15/peru-argentina-y-america-latina-la-navegacion-por-el-camino-de-la-izquierda/
Website for all Publications:
As always, at my professional website you can access the present, and all of my past publications, as well as select webinars and podcasts:
https://revanellis.com/
Book on China-Latin America:
My latest book, China Engages Latin America: Distorting Development and Democracy, is available through my publisher Palgrave-Macmillan, at:
https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-96049-0
Please feel free to share this post with a friend or colleague. If you would like to be included in my (always free) distribution list, I welcome the opportunity to include you:
Thank you, as always, for your interest in my work.
Respectfully,
R. Evan Ellis, PhD
Latin America Research Professor
U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute
@REvanEllis
Website: https://revanellis.com