Evan Ellis - Opportunities and Risks with Argentina's New Government
Dear Colleague,
The new government of Javier Milei, inaugurated on Sunday December 10th, faces considerable and immediate fiscal, financial, security and international challenges, little time, and limited political capital to implement the policies necessary to effectively respond to them.
Despite such challenges, President Milei’s frankness about the coming hardships, and his commitment to move quickly was inspiring, as have been his initial choices of a professional team, including Luis Caputo to lead the Economic team and recapture the critically important confidence of markets.
Those who dismiss Milei as a vulgar “populist” are overlooking important elements of his geeky, yet creative, even inspired character—that leaves open the door for surprise and great achievement (can anyone imagine Donald Trump citing economic texts to explain why theoretical economist John Maynard Keynes, father of government countercyclical intervention was a “delinquent” ?).
Those who dismiss Milei also overlook the critically important core of his message, often forgotten in Argentina and the rest of Latin America...and also in the US: Is the EFFORT and INNOVATION of the PERSON and the PRIVATE SECTOR that generates VALUE...NOT the government. It is a lesson that is particularly bitter for Argentina now suffering the legacy of Peronism…but equally important as the world responds to the seductive appeal of the benefits of China’s “big government” and the tradeoff of individual privacy and liberty for order and growth that it seems to offer.
In foreign affairs, for those with faith in defending democracy against aggression, Milei’s embrace of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky at the inauguration…and the absence of those who have excused Putin’s unconscionable and sustained aggression against the Ukranian people (and Maduro’s aggression against Guyana)—Brazil’s Lula, Mexico’s Amlo, Colombia’s Petro—That embrace was a moving moment of moral clarity in world often filled with shades of gray.
Milei embarks on his journey that will profoundly impact both Argentina and the region with a credible team in economic, foreign policy, and security matters, even if the odds are stacked against them. I wish President Milei and his team, and Argentina the very best—and the best as well to all who find continued faith in improbable but moving signs for hope in this season of Hannukah, the Jewish Festival of Lights, and the coming Christmas holidays, both enduring reminders of the enduring power of light and hope in this world.
The article is available here for download in English:
and in Spanish:
and in Portuguese
:
It is also available for download from the Center for Strategic Studies of the Peruvian Army (CEEEP) which published and translated it:
In English:
https://ceeep.mil.pe/2023/12/07/oportunidades-y-riesgos-con-el-nuevo-gobierno-argentino/?lang=en
In Spanish:
https://ceeep.mil.pe/2023/12/07/oportunidades-y-riesgos-con-el-nuevo-gobierno-argentino/
and in Portuguese:
https://ceeep.mil.pe/2023/12/07/oportunidades-y-riesgos-con-el-nuevo-gobierno-argentino/?lang=pt-pt
Podcast and Radio Shows:
As always, I would also like to share with you the links to my latest podcasts.
This includes my December 6, 2023 interview with Strategic Studies Institute colleague Dr. John Deni on his program “SSI Live,” on the topic of challenges facing Argentina’s newly elected president Javier Milei and his government, and the implications for the region. It is available here:
https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/SSI-Media/Podcasts-Lectures-and-Panels/SSI-Live-Podcast/mod/67382/player/583/audio/77726/
It also includes segments on the John Batchelor Show, in his special ongoing series on Latin America, The New World Report. You may find these weekly podcasts, which we have been doing regularly for well over a year now, as a useful analysis of key events in the region. The full list is available on my website:
https://www.revanellis.com
The latest episodes are:
Venezuela-Guyana Part I: December 7: https://audioboom.com/posts/8413174-1-2-newworldreport-venezuela-threatens-to-annex-most-of-tiny-guyana-bluff-or-little-green-men
Venezuela-Guyana Part II: December 7: https://audioboom.com/posts/8413172-1-2-newworldreport-venezuela-threatens-to-annex-most-of-tiny-guyana-bluff-or-little-green-men
Milei reassures markets in Argentina: December 7: https://audioboom.com/posts/8413175-newworldreport-president-elect-milei-reassures-the-markets-latin-american-research-professor-e
Panama in Multiple Crises: December 7: https://audioboom.com/posts/8413176-newworldreport-panama-bad-luck-in-multiple-crises-in-a-drought-latin-american-research-profes
Website for all Publications:
As always, at my professional website you can access the present, and all of my past publications, as well as select webinars and podcasts:
https://revanellis.com/
I am pleased to announce that the website now has its own search engine and improved functionality for browsing and accessing my older articles, thanks to a gift by my brilliant son and Information Technology professional, Brandon Ellis.
Book on China-Latin America:
My latest book, China Engages Latin America: Distorting Development and Democracy, is available through my publisher Palgrave-Macmillan, at:
https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-96049-0
Please feel free to share this post with a friend or colleague. If you would like to be included in my (always free) distribution list, I welcome the opportunity to include you:
Thank you, as always, for your interest in my work.
Respectfully,
R. Evan Ellis, PhD
Latin America Research Professor
U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute
@REvanEllis
Website: https://revanellis.com