Dear Colleague,
With this email, I am proud to share with you my latest work on Venezuela and associated U.S. policy.
This work argues, that while the United States should continue to strongly support the democratic opposition in Venezuela, and work to bring about democracy, it is time for it to recognize that the Maduro regime, and those benefitting from its power and criminal activities, have no intention of risking a true democratic opening that could displace them from power, and threaten the loss of their illicit wealth and revenue streams, and likely criminal prosecution. This work argues that the regime has been playing a cynical game with the Biden Administration, dangling ambiguous commitments of future good behavior, to secure from the US as many benefits as possible from sanctions relief and other concession.
The classic Peanuts cartoon joke of Lucy eternally convincing Charlie Brown, she will let him “kick the football,” then pulling it away, comes to mind…
The result of the Maduro regime’s multiple rounds of securing up-front benefits from its ambiguous commitments, then breaking or redefining them to gain even more time, has given the Maduro regime an influx of resources, and has demonstrated to its followers its ability to “outwit the gringos bobos,” together greatly strengthening Maduro’s power, and undercutting Venezuela’s true democratic opposition, and Maria Corina Machado, who Venezuelans have overwhelmingly chosen as their champion in facing the Maduro dictatorship.
The work is available in English here for download:
The Spanish-language version is available for download here:
The English-language version is also available from the website of Global Americans, which originally published it.
https://theglobalamericans.org/the-case-for-containing-not-coddling-maduro/
The Spanish-language version is also available for the websit of InfoBAE:
https://www.infobae.com/america/opinion/2024/02/28/es-necesario-contener-no-mimar-a-nicolas-maduro/
Podcast and Radio Shows:
As always, I would also like to share with you the links to my latest video presentations and podcasts:
These include my presentation, in Spanish, on the same topic of trends in PRC Defense Engagement in the region, to the Red China-ALC. The program, and the group is hosted by my distinguished colleague and friend, Dr. Enrique Dussel Peters, head of the Mexico-China Center (CECHIMEX) at Mexico’s National Autonomous University (UNAM). CECHIMEX is one of the region’s premier centers for China and China-Latin America studies; it was an honor for me to share this new work in that forum.:
My audiovisual products also include my latest segments on the John Batchelor Show, in his special ongoing series on Latin America, The New World Report. You may find these weekly podcasts, which we have been doing regularly for well over a year now, as a useful analysis of key events in the region.
The full list is available on my website:
https://www.revanellis.com
The latest episodes (February 21, 2024) are:
G20 summit and Brazil: https://audioboom.com/posts/8461897-newworldreport-g20-foreign-ministers-at-rio-de-janeiro-lula-de-silva-defames-israel-latin-ame
Argentina: https://audioboom.com/posts/8461900-newworldreport-fm-david-cameron-visits-the-falklands-and-buenos-aires-reacts-dryly-latin-ame
El Salvador, Honduras and Panama: https://audioboom.com/posts/8461901-newworldreport-bukele-celebrates-former-president-of-honduras-hernandez-on-trial-panam-fortun
Colombia: https://audioboom.com/posts/8461899-newworldreport-gustavo-petro-of-colombia-weighs-bombing-the-narco-terror-gangs-latin-american
Website for all Publications:
As always, at my professional website you can access the present, and all of my past publications, as well as select webinars and podcasts:
https://revanellis.com/
Book on China-Latin America:
My latest book, China Engages Latin America: Distorting Development and Democracy, is available through my publisher Palgrave-Macmillan, at:
https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-96049-0
Please feel free to share this post with a friend or colleague. If you would like to be included in my (always free) distribution list, I welcome the opportunity to include you:
Thank you, as always, for your interest in my work.
Respectfully,
R. Evan Ellis, PhD
Latin America Research Professor
U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute
@REvanEllis
Website: https://revanellis.com
Thank you for sending me this, professor.
Maduro has been in power almost as long as Chavez by the time of his death, and since day 1 he has been severely underestimated by both national and international actors. Since the 2013 elections he has shown his very impressive political instinct to comfortably remain in power and sideline potential internal contenders. Chavismo's survival depend on him staying in power, and if they share something is a deep understanding of it.
It is hard and sort of liberating to realize that there are simply no sufficient incentives to actually negotiate anything of substance, and act in consequence.