Dear Colleague, With this email, I am proud to share with you my latest work on Venezuela and associated U.S. policy. This work argues, that while the United States should continue to strongly support the democratic opposition in Venezuela, and work to bring about democracy, it is time for it to recognize that the Maduro regime, and those benefitting from its power and criminal activities, have no intention of risking a true democratic opening that could displace them from power, and threaten the loss of their illicit wealth and revenue streams, and likely criminal prosecution. This work argues that the regime has been playing a cynical game with the Biden Administration, dangling ambiguous commitments of future good behavior, to secure from the US as many benefits as possible from sanctions relief and other concession.
Maduro has been in power almost as long as Chavez by the time of his death, and since day 1 he has been severely underestimated by both national and international actors. Since the 2013 elections he has shown his very impressive political instinct to comfortably remain in power and sideline potential internal contenders. Chavismo's survival depend on him staying in power, and if they share something is a deep understanding of it.
It is hard and sort of liberating to realize that there are simply no sufficient incentives to actually negotiate anything of substance, and act in consequence.
Thank you for sending me this, professor.
Maduro has been in power almost as long as Chavez by the time of his death, and since day 1 he has been severely underestimated by both national and international actors. Since the 2013 elections he has shown his very impressive political instinct to comfortably remain in power and sideline potential internal contenders. Chavismo's survival depend on him staying in power, and if they share something is a deep understanding of it.
It is hard and sort of liberating to realize that there are simply no sufficient incentives to actually negotiate anything of substance, and act in consequence.